The security situation in Tripoli will remain changeable. Although generally stable, the risk of violent clashes will endure as long as weapons remain widespread, and the security forces remain incapable of disarming the disparate militia groups in the city.
The situation in Benghazi is similar, and the new government will make providing an effective, centrally controlled security force one of its primary aims.
The NFA will seek to form a broad coalition in order to assure that the government has the ability to pass vital legislation required to move the transition process along. A council to draft a constitution will also be formed, although at present it appears that this may be popularly elected.
The NFA, led by former wartime prime minister Mahmoud Jibril finished ahead of its Islamist rivals following the announcement of results on 17 July. However, the vast majority of seats in the new parliament are reserved for independent candidates, thus it remains unclear who will dominate after the process of coalition building has been completed. The NFA won 39 out of the 80 seats reserved for parties in the 200-member assembly, compared to the Muslim Brotherhood, which won 17 seats.
The security situation in Tripoli remains the same. AKE personnel on the ground have reported a number of clashes in the city over the past week, and the risk of further incidents of this nature remains.
On 17 July, at least two people were killed in clashes in the Hay al-Andalus area of Gargaresh. The clashes reportedly began when a man was killed following an incident of negligent discharge. The incident then escalated into a family feud, with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) and automatic weapons being fired at the home of the person responsible.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that the second victim was the man responsible for the original shooting. The incident demonstrates the risks associated with the widespread presence of arms in the hands of untrained individuals. Clashes involving an initial argument can often escalate rapidly given that both sides are usually armed, and can call on the support of family members or fellow militiamen. Personnel are advised to avoid areas when there are reports of clashes, and be aware that they can re-ignite rapidly despite an appearance of calm.
On the ground AKE personnel also highlighted that a clash involving the Zintan militia and another local armed group occurred in the Casbencasir area to the north west of Tripoli International Airport on 19 July. There was no information on any casualties during the clashes. The clash reportedly erupted over a land dispute in the area.
The airport has seen a number of clashes over recent months, with local militia groups often attempting to use it as a bargaining chip, given its strategic nature, in order to highlight their causes or grievance with the interim government.
Meanwhile, AKE personnel on the ground have highlighted reports of armed robberies throughout the city, even in generally safe areas such as Gargaresh. Reports of armed robberies and car-jacking have steadily increased over recent months, with outlying areas such as Sarraj, and Janzour seeing a number of these incidents.
Benghazi and the east
The security situation in Benghazi remains the same. There remains a risk of violence around demonstrations protesting perceived under-representation of the east. There will also remain a risk of violence carried out by local armed groups aimed at highlighting the issue.
Furthermore, the risk of small-scale attacks by suspected Jihadist groups operating in the east of the country will remain and, as in Tripoli, the risk of larger scale attacks cannot be discounted.
Olympic chief kidnapped
On 15 July Libya's Olympic committee President Nabil al-Alem was kidnapped from his vehicle near his office by armed men in military clothing who approached and cornered him in two vehicles. Al-Alem, a former national judo champion, became head of the Olympic committee after its president Mohammed Gaddafi, one of Muammar Gaddafi's sons, fled to Algeria in August 2011. Although his whereabouts remain unknown, National Transitional Council (NTC) deputy chairman Mustafa El-Huni stated that the authorities were working on securing his release.
The release of official election results on 17 July has begun a process of coalition building as the two main political blocs attempt to persuade independent candidates to join their governing coalition. The loyalties of most of the parliament's 120 independents remain unclear, although it is likely that many will attempt to retain their independence due to mistrust of both major groups. For many the Muslim Brotherhood will appear to ideological, while the NFA may also have too many links to the former regime for many.
The Muslim Brotherhood gained 17 out of 80 seats reserved for parties in the parliament, while the NFA gained 39. Some reports indicate that the Muslim Brotherhood backed another 20 winning independent candidates, bringing their total to 39, while the NFA backed 100 independents in the polls, although it remains unclear how many won their individual contests. What is clear is that not all the independents will choose a side, potentially leaving a sizeable group that may switch allegiances on individual issues. Although unclear at the moment how strong the governing coalition is likely to be, a potential scenario could see the government required to convince independents to side with it over every piece of legislation it passes, thus potentially slowing the pace at which vital but controversial decisions are made. The NFA will therefore be keen to form a broad coalition that will give it a parliamentary majority.
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